Monthly Archive 2024年9月24日

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NFL Week 3 odds, expert picks, best bets, teasers, spreads, survivor picks, TV, live streaming

The NFL is nothing if not unpredictable. After all, two weeks into the 2024 campaign, who expected the Minnesota Vikings to be 2-0, or the Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals to be a combined 0-4? It’s all part of the fun of the season: the “any given Sunday” uncertainty. And yet, as we look ahead to Week 3, is it possible there are still some “safe bets” to be made in the next wave of high-profile matchups?

We’ve collected all of the best picks and gambling content from CBSSports.com and SportsLine and put them in one place, so you can get picks against the spread from our CBS Sports experts as well as additional feature content for each game, including plays from top SportsLine experts and the SportsLine Projection Model, best bets from our staff, survivor picks and more. Ready? Let’s jump in.

All NFL odds via SportsLine consensus odds.

Which picks can you make with confidence in Week 3? And which Super Bowl contender goes down hard? Visit SportsLine, as its incredible model simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up almost $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception.

Giants at Browns
Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox), stream on fubo (try for free)
Open: Browns -5.5, O/U 43.5

SportsLine’s Projection Model simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 3 of the 2024 season on a 187-130 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates to the 2017 season. The Browns (-6.5, 38.5) cover the spread against the Giants almost 60% of the time in projections, but you can find the full betting breakdow right here.

“If the Titans can go a week without giving up a blocked punt and if Will Levis can go a week without making a dumb turnover, I actually think they can win this game. The Titans defense does a pretty solid job of stopping the run and it won’t be surprising if they go all in on that, which would put the game in the hands of Malik Willis.”

CBS Sports NFL writer John Breech likes Tennessee to squeeze out a one-score win if Jordan Love doesn’t suit up for the Packers, though he likes Green Bay to come out victorious in the event Love returns sooner than expected. Catch his full breakdown of the game, plus all his Week 3 picks, right here.

“Anthony Richardson’s talent gives him a ceiling that is arguably unmatched in the NFL. However, it’s his inconsistency that has capped Indianapolis thus far. We saw that in the loss to Green Bay last week, and we’re now entering into the territory of Richardson needing to throw at a more consistent level before we can trust him. This week, he has a difficult matchup against a Bears defense that is flat-out good and even gave C.J. Stroud fits a week ago. It also doesn’t hurt the Bears’ chances to better move the ball offensively with Colts star defensive tackle DeForest Buckner now on injured reserve.”

CBS Sports NFL writer Tyler Sullivan likes Chicago to get back above .500 against the mercurial Colts. Check out his full analysis of this matchup, plus other Week 3 projections, right here.

“This is a big game between two undefeated teams. The Vikings are a surprise team, while the Texans were expected to be good. The Minnesota defense has been really good. They will throw a ton of looks at C.J. Stroud. I think that will be the difference in the game. They will force a turnover and get a lot of pressure.”

CBS Sports senior columnist Pete Prisco likes Minnesota to stay unbeaten with a second straight home upset. Check out all his Week 3 against-the-spread picks right here.

“The Saints offense has been clicking because Derek Carr has been on fire and because Alvin Kamara has been unstoppable. When you’re facing an offense like this, it’s nice to have some time to prepare, but the Eagles won’t have that. They have to travel to New Orleans on a short week after losing on Monday night and Philly will be bringing a defense that’s surrendering nearly 400 yards per game. When your defense is that playing that badly, the Saints are the last team you want to be facing.”

CBS Sports NFL writer John Breech wasn’t buying the Saints going into the season, but now he’s confident New Orleans will leave Week 3 with a spotless record. Find all his picks for this weekend right here.

“This game could be crazy low scoring with two slam-it-in-your-face offenses. The difference between the two teams is the quarterback, however. Justin Fields has been a wonderful surprise this season, but I’m not sure he’s prepared for a Bolts defense that has shut down questionable offenses in Vegas and Carolina so far this season, yielding less than 150 yards per game through the air. Arthur Smith isn’t going to attack vertically, which means the Steelers have to win up front by pounding the ball. … Neutralizing the Steelers up front would allow Justin Herbert to take some shots to potential breakout Quentin Johnston.”

CBS Sports senior writer Will Brinson expects this AFC slugfest to be competitive, but he likes Jim Harbaugh’s squad to come away as touchdown winners. Check out all his best bets for Week 3 right here.

“Let’s take another home favorite in the Buccaneers, who destroyed the Washington Commanders in Week 1, then upset the Detroit Lions in Week 2, thanks to a strong performance from the defense. Broncos rookie quarterback Bo Nix has struggled in his first few NFL games, completing just 6 of 24 passes with three interceptions on throws of 10-plus air yards. The Broncos offense is averaging 13 points per game and just 263 yards of total offense per contest. Both rank bottom four in the NFL.”

CBS Sports NFL writer Jordan Dajani expects Tampa Bay to remain in cruise control, predicting a double-digit win for Baker Mayfield and Co. Catch all his Week 3 projections right here.

“Who doesn’t love a good ol’ dead-cat bounce game? It’s borderline literal for this one, with the stinky Carolina Panthers repping the feline mascot. Bryce Young just got benched, which means the entire team 1.) should rally around Andy Dalton and 2.) knows that no one’s job is safe. The Raiders are playing well, but I don’t think they’ll run away with this game. They were involved in a low-scoring close first half against the Chargers before Jim Harbaugh’s squad pulled away and they miraculously stormed back against the Ravens. Dalton will give Carolina a higher floor offensively — it’s impossible to be lower — and I expect the Raiders to try to win this game via the ground game almost entirely. That opens up the back door for the Ginger King.”

CBS Sports senior writer Will Brinson may not like the Panthers as a functional organization, but he does like them to pull off a road upset in Las Vegas. Catch all his Week 3 best bets right here.

The SportsLine Projection Model has ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Now, it has simulated every snap of Week 3 and revealed its best parlay picks. One piece: The model says the Seahawks (-4.5, 41.5) cover at home against the Dolphins in nearly 60% of simulations, with Skylar Thompson set to start in place of injured quarterback Tua Tagovailoa for Miami. Catch the full breakdown right here.

SportsLine expert Eric Cohen, who hosts the weekly “Early Edge” NFL prop show on YouTube, finished last season on a 39-28 roll on NFL picks. In Week 3, he likes the Ravens to win in Dallas and avoid an 0-3 start: “Dallas’ defense showed major leaks against New Orleans. … Alvin Kamara scored four times against the Cowboys so [Derrick] Henry should score at least twice on Sunday, right? I think he does and Baltimore picks up a much-needed road win.” Catch his full breakdown at SportsLine right here.

Built using cutting-edge artificial intelligence and machine learning techniques by SportsLine’s Data Science team, the AI PickBot says the Rams cover as seven-point home underdogs against the 49ers. Both teams are coming off disappointing losses, with the 49ers falling 23-17 to the Vikings, while the Rams were throttled 41-10 by the Cardinals. However, Los Angeles has covered in two of its last three head-to-head matchups with San Francisco and is 7-2 against the spread over its last nine games. The AI PickBot is predicting a narrow 20-19 win for the 49ers, making the Rams an A-rated pick against the spread. Check out the full breakdown right here.

The Lions ran into some trouble against the Buccaneers in Week 2, and now they’ll travel to Arizona, where the Cardinals have been red hot under a healthier Kyler Murray. SportsLine expert Jason La Canfora openly considered Detroit as a best bet for this weekend, but now he’s finalized his rundown of favorite ATS picks for the Week 3 slate. You can find out whether the Lions made the cut, and which teams deserve your bet, right here.

Kansas City is 2-0, fresh off back-to-back tight wins over fellow AFC contenders in the Bengals and Ravens. Now they get Kirk Cousins and the Falcons, who stunned the Eagles with a Monday night comeback. Which side is poised to come through in prime time? SportsLine expert Larry Hartstein is 79-48-2 in weekly NFL best bets since 2022, and now he’s got a confident take on this matchup. Check out his breakdown and prediction right here.

Time: Monday, 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN), stream on fubo (try for free)
Open: Bills -4.5, O/U 50

Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars are reeling, desperate to avoid an 0-3 start. Meanwhile, Josh Allen and the Bills are rolling, looking to stay unbeaten atop the AFC standings. Can Buffalo keep the momentum going at home in this prime-time matchup? SportsLine expert Mike Tierney has an answer. He’s 154-124-9 in the NFL the past two seasons, returning $1,586 to $100 players (every bet 1 unit), and you can find his Week 3 projection right here.

Commanders at Bengals
Time: Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ABC), stream on fubo (try for free)
Open: Bengals -6.5, O/U 47.5

Which team should you use in your survivor pools in Week 3? R.J. White, who is 636-534-34 (+4899) on ATS picks over the last seven years, has you covered. He has the Bengals as one of his three options this week, but warns since the consensus pick has lost the first two weeks, it may be smart to pivot to one of the other two options. Check it out here.

Byadmin

Bucs roll against Broncos, Texans-Vikings shootout, sneaky two-leg teaser

For the second straight year, we collectively counted out Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers. And for the second straight year, they’re making us all look really stupid. Tampa is off to a 2-0 start and Baker is playing some great football. Over his last 10 starts, he leads the NFL in passing touchdowns (22) and is tied with Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes for most wins (eight, including the postseason).

Tampa’s defense is banged up on the back end, but that shouldn’t be an issue against this Broncos offense, which is really struggling to do anything down the field with Bo Nix under center. Denver would love to run the ball, but I don’t think it will be as easy as the stats imply. Tampa’s rush-defense numbers are skewed by playing Jayden Daniels and a couple of long runs by the Lions. The Broncos need to win via the pass if they want to take down the Bucs.

Nix has attempted 47 passes so far this season, is averaging 5 yards per attempt, has four picks and has yet to throw a touchdown. I’m willing to take that gamble.

On the offensive side, anyone who thought it might be Dave Canales creating the magic surely feels off base at this point, with the Panthers limping out to 13 total points and benching Bryce Young for Andy Dalton. New OC Liam Cohen has moved Chris Godwin to the slot more often and he, along with Jaleel McLaughlin, could eat in this matchup with Patrick Surtain II likely shadowing Mike Evans. This is a sneaky Rachaad White spot as well, with Kenneth Walker III and the Najee Harris/Jaylen Warren combo both having reasonable success against Denver’s run defense.

If the Bucs get a lead, they’re going to pound the ball and Todd Bowles will blitz the hell out of Nix while he tries to mount a comeback. The Bucs have one cruise-control win at home so far this season against a rookie quarterback and a questionable offense.

Sign me up for another.

Pick: Buccaneers (-6.5)

Best Bets Week 2: 0-5
Best Bets YTD: 2-8

Other best bets
Teaser: Chargers (+7) at Steelers
This game could be crazy low scoring with two slam-it-in-your-face offenses. The difference between the two teams is the quarterback, however. Justin Fields has been a wonderful surprise this season, but I’m not sure he’s prepared for a Bolts defense that has shut down questionable offenses in Vegas and Carolina so far this season, yielding less than 150 yards per game through the air. Arthur Smith isn’t going to attack vertically, which means the Steelers have to win up front by pounding the ball. I don’t expect another monster game from J.K. Dobbins but I wouldn’t put anything past the Chargers in the run game with the way their offensive line is playing. Neutralizing the Steelers up front would allow Justin Herbert to take some shots to potential breakout Quentin Johnston. This is the Jim Nantz/Tony Romo game and it should be a good one, but I’ll take the Bolts to find a way to win and certainly keep it within a touchdown regardless.

Teaser: 49ers (-1) at Rams
The Niners are on the second leg of back-to-back road games here, so it’s not an easy spot, particularly against a division rival. But we’ve seen Kyle Shanahan dominate Sean McVay in the last few years and now he gets the Rams at their most vulnerable. Multiple offensive linemen for Los Angeles went on injured reserve this week and Matthew Stafford is going to be missing both of his primary weapons in Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp. Deebo Samuel is missing as well but this profiles as a possible Brandon Aiyuk explosion and George Kittle won’t be easy to deal with either. If the Niners get a lead it’s Jordan Mason time against a defense no longer sporting Aaron Donald. Laying the full touchdown is doable but tough — I certainly expect the 49ers to find a way to win.

Texans/Vikings Over 46.5
I don’t want to call the Vikings offense an unstoppable force with Sam Darnold, but as long as Justin Jefferson is out there he is going to produce big numbers. Just kidding — he actually played great football without Jefferson out there. With Jefferson on the field, Darnold attacked down the field from his own end zone. Houston’s defense profiles as a potentially elite unit, especially the way Derek Stingley Jr., is playing but the Vikings protection up front and weapons give them enough to answer any scores the Texans fire off. And I think there will be plenty against Brian Flores’ hyper-aggressive blitz defense — this year C.J. Stroud is 15-for-19 for 151 yards, one touchdown and no picks against the blitz. The Texans offensive line can hold up and Nico Collins/Tank Dell are lethal deep/explosive play weapons in those situations. I’m expecting a sneaky-ish back-and-forth affair here.

Which picks can you make with confidence, and which three must-see underdogs should you lock in now? Visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned well over $7,000, and find out.

Lions/Cardinals Over 51.5
The Cardinals have already been involved in two high-scoring affairs this season, going back and forth with the Buffalo Bills in Week 1 and hanging a forty burger on the banged-up Rams last week. Detroit’s defense is much improved and it may be tough sledding in the run game for Arizona, but Kyler Murray’s playing some Big Boy football already this season and should be able to keep it going against a Lions secondary that is still finding its footing with a lot of new pieces added. It’s hard not to be impressed with Kyler and the weapons he’s got should find success against Detroit. Marvin Harrison Jr., was incredible last week and left some yards on the field. Trey McBride’s usage is through the roof and he might be in store for a breakout game soon. Detroit’s not afraid to keep up with anyone and Amon-Ra St. Brown/Jameson Williams/Sam LaPorta give them passing-game weapons to get involved in a shootout.

Panthers (+5.5) at Raiders
GULP. Who doesn’t love a good, old dead-cat bounce game? It’s borderline literal for this one, with the stinky Carolina Panthers repping the feline mascot. Bryce Young just got benched, which means the entire team 1) should rally around Andy Dalton and 2) knows that no one’s job is safe. The Raiders are playing well, but I don’t think they’ll run away with this game. They were involved in a low-scoring close first half against the Chargers before Jim Harbaugh’s squad pulled away and they miraculously stormed back against the Ravens. Dalton will give Carolina a higher floor offensively — it’s impossible to be lower — and I expect the Raiders to try to win this game via the ground game almost entirely. That opens up the back door for the Ginger King worst case.

Byadmin

Has C.J. Stroud altered game plan for NFL GMs? Why the Texans QB has increased pressure to win immediately

What C.J. Stroud has done for the franchise quarterback is unparalleled. Stroud’s success with the Houston Texans has reversed the course of the franchise and made the organization one of the best in the NFL in just a year.

Having Stroud changed everything in Houston — for the better.

“I had a bunch of his games last year,” said NFL on CBS broadcaster Ian Eagle to CBS Sports this week. “To be honest, I was blown away.”

Eagle, who is calling Sunday’s Week 3 game between the Texans and Minnesota Vikings, saw things in Stroud he hasn’t seen with young quarterbacks in a while. The intangibles Stroud possessed were there immediately.

“I just saw a savviness. I saw someone that was cool under pressure. I saw a natural leader out there on the field,” Eagle said. “Everybody on his team was feeding off of him and he was only a rookie.

“It got to the point where you were no longer looking at C.J. Stroud as only a rookie of the year candidate, you are looking at him as a legitimate MVP candidate. That’s where his game took him his first year.”

Stroud’s first year was one for the ages. He finished his rookie season completing 63.9% of his passes for 4,108 yards with 23 touchdowns to five interceptions for a 100.8 passer rating, leading the NFL in pass yards per game (273.8) and having the lowest interception rate (1.0%). The highest-drafted rookie quarterback to win a playoff game (No. 2 overall), Stroud’s 4,108 passing yards in the regular season were the third-most by a rookie quarterback in NFL history.

Stroud is just the third quarterback in the past 50 seasons to lead the NFL in pass yards per game and touchdown-to-interception ratio (4.6, minimum 10 starts). Stroud also had the highest touchdown-to-interception ratio against winning teams in NFL history (including playoffs), having 21 touchdowns to two interceptions (10.5).

Through two games, Stroud has picked up where he left off. Stroud has completed 69.1% of his passes for 494 yards with three touchdowns and zero interceptions (104.7 rating), leading the Texans to a 2-0 start.

“It’s only two games in year two and there are those who believe in sophomore jinxes, I’m not seeing it,” Eagle said. “I’m just seeing a continuation of all of those skills and a conviction of how he plays. There’s competitiveness there. There’s an ability to read defenses that you never quite know will translate to the next level.

“He’s checked every box of what you are looking for in a franchise quarterback. And if you’re a fan of the Houston Texans, you might be in for a decade of playoff football wit this guy under center.”

Has Stroud changed the game for GMs?
Finding a franchise quarterback has always been the goal for NFL general managers, yet actually landing one is easier said than done. Stroud has forced general managers to up their game in getting that franchise quarterback, just by watching the Texans’ success since he’s arrived in Houston.

The Texans won 11 games from 2020 through 2022. Stroud already has 13 wins in 21 games with the franchise (including playoffs).

“I don’t know if C.J. Stroud’s success is putting more pressure (on general managers), but I do know it’s a reminder in this league you can improve quicker than you can in other professional sports,” Eagle said. “It’s been proven, if you make smart personnel decisions in the NFL you can get much better in a year or two years.

“Now as we know, Kansas City is the model and that plays to the franchise quarterback. And that’s where Houston has to feel really good that they’ve got that area covered.”

Kansas City getting their pick right with Mahomes and Houston doing the same with Stroud may not have put more pressure on general managers to find that franchise quarterback, but has certainly upped their game. There’s enough pressure to win in the NFL, yet it’s much easier having that franchise quarterback.